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China and SE Asia Shipping News – February 2026

Price Trends

In February 2026, container shipping rates from China to the UK/EU are continuing a downward trajectory due to weak pre- and post-CNY demand, likely ranging between $2,100-$3,000 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) for the China-to-Northern Europe route (including the UK). This reflects softening from January levels:

Overcapacity Pressure: Fleet growth (8%+ in recent years) outpaces demand (~3% projected for 2026), capping rates despite some blank sailings. SCFI comprehensive index hovered ~1,251 points (flat but down 20%+ monthly), with Europe base ports reflecting subdued levels.

Post-CNY Adjustment: CNY factory shutdowns (around February 12) and lower export volumes have led to consistent declines. Drewry’s WCI fell 1% to $1,933/FEU globally as of February 12 (fifth consecutive weekly drop), with Asia-North Europe spots (e.g., Shanghai-Rotterdam) down 2% to $2,127/FEU. FBX11 (Asia-N. Europe) decreased 8% recently to around $2,548/FEU (weekly), with further slips noted. UK-specific rates (e.g., to Felixstowe/Southampton) align closer to $2,500-$2,800/FEU mid-month, per Freightos and BusinessAnalytiq data showing global averages ~$2,762/FEU (down 1.9%).

Route Changes

Route dynamics for China-to-UK shipping in February 2026 show tentative progress toward Suez resumption but remain mixed:

Port Operations: Felixstowe and Southampton see easing post-holiday congestion, aided by tech upgrades, though weather and schedule disruptions cause minor delays.

Red Sea/Suez Canal Status: Security has improved (no major Houthi attacks recently), enabling partial returns. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (Gemini Cooperation) resumed structural transits on select services (e.g., ME11 from mid-February, MECL earlier), with eastbound/westbound via Suez starting early February. However, mixed messages persist—some Maersk vessels diverted back to Cape due to weather/delays, and CMA CGM reversed some plans amid risks. Suez transits are increasing but still ~60% below pre-crisis levels; most Asia-Europe services (60-70%) stick to Cape of Good Hope (40-45 days vs. 30-35 via Suez), adding fuel/insurance costs. UK ports benefit from shorter potential times if Suez ramps up, but congestion risks loom from simultaneous arrivals.

Shipping Carrier Activities

Carriers on the China-to-UK route are managing overcapacity and testing Suez returns in February 2026:

Strategic Shifts: Carriers cut costs (e.g., Maersk’s restructuring/layoffs) amid revenue slips, focusing on efficiency and potential March GRIs for post-CNY rebound.

Capacity Discipline: MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and others blank 15-25% of Asia-Europe sailings post-CNY to counter weak volumes and prevent sharper rate drops. This follows Q4 2025 patterns, with carriers warning of losses from overcapacity.

Alliance Adjustments: Gemini Cooperation (Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd) pushes phased Suez returns (e.g., ME11 mid-February), targeting higher reliability (~90%). Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM-led) and Premier Alliance maintain strong shares but face equipment repositioning challenges. MSC’s independent ops dominate via slot exchanges. Green initiatives (LNG fleets) continue, with IMO compliance adding minor premiums.

Possible Risks to Rates

Several risks could disrupt February 2026 trends and impact rates:

Overcapacity & Operational Costs: New deliveries exacerbate supply glut; IMO/EU ETS rules add $100-$300/FEU; fuel stability helps but equipment shortages raise leasing.

Geopolitical Volatility: Renewed Houthi threats or incidents could halt Suez progress, enforcing Cape routing and adding 20-30% ($2,800-$3,800/FEU) via higher costs. Full Suez adoption (phased post-CNY) might drop rates to $1,800-$2,500/FEU by releasing capacity.

Tariff/Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing US-China tariff effects (despite some pauses) and global deals (e.g., US-India reductions) shift flows; potential escalations could tighten capacity or suppress demand, adding $300-$600/FEU volatility.

Economic/Demand Weakness: Slow China growth (~4%) and UK/eurozone (~1.7%) plus 2026 forecasts (~1-3% global volume growth) could push rates toward $2,000/FEU or below if imports falter; post-CNY rebound might lift to $3,200/FEU.

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