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China and SE Asia Shipping News – May 2026

Price Trends

In May 2026, rates from China to the UK are volatile but showing signs of softening after March/April spikes, likely ranging between $3,200-$5,200 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit). Spot rates reflect a mix of lingering conflict surcharges and structural oversupply.

UK-Specific: Felixstowe/Southampton rates track Northern Europe but may include minor premiums for port handling amid potential reroute bunching.

Latest Indices: FBX11 (China/East Asia to Northern Europe) hovers around $5,678 (with minor weekly fluctuations, e.g., +0.8% in recent readings), while Drewry’s WCI eased recently to ~$2,216/FEU globally (down 1% in one late-April week), with Asia-Europe components like Shanghai-Rotterdam at ~$2,127 and Shanghai-Genoa higher. Rates rose sharply in March due to Hormuz/Red Sea risks but have stabilized or dipped modestly into May as carriers absorb capacity via longer routes.

Conflict Premiums vs. Overcapacity: War-risk and bunker surcharges (tied to elevated oil prices from Hormuz issues) add $200-$800/FEU, but massive fleet growth (significant new deliveries in 2025-2026) and blank sailings prevent sustained highs. Analysts note Asia-Europe rates face downward pressure overall, with some weekly slides (e.g., 3-5% in mid-April) despite geopolitical noise.

Route Changes

Cape of Good Hope dominance persists, with limited or no reliable Suez access due to spillover risks from the Iran conflict. Transit times for China-UK remain extended at 40-50+ days (vs. 30-35 via Suez).

UK Ports: Moderate congestion risks from vessel bunching; tech upgrades help, but longer lead times require buffer planning.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic is at a trickle (~5-10% of normal as of late April), with ~150+ vessels initially stranded and ongoing mine-clearance challenges (potentially 6 months). While direct container impact is low (2-3% global volumes), it drives fuel price volatility, insurance spikes, and indirect rerouting.

Red Sea/Suez: Full avoidance continues. Carriers suspended or paused Suez plans in March; no major resumption in May due to security concerns. Most Asia-Europe services (70-80%+) route via Cape.

Shipping Carrier Activities

Carriers prioritize safety, capacity management, and surcharges while leveraging alliances:

Other Moves: Focus on cost control amid lower revenues; green/LNG initiatives continue but face higher bunker costs. Some carriers explore multimodal (e.g., sea-air) alternatives for urgent cargo.

Rerouting & Blank Sailings: Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd (Gemini), CMA CGM, and MSC maintain Cape routing for Asia-Europe, with increased blank sailings (15-30% on key lanes) to counter overcapacity and stabilise rates. Emergency war-risk and bunker surcharges are widespread.

Alliances: Gemini (Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd) and Ocean Alliance focus on reliable Cape schedules. MSC and Premier Alliance use slot exchanges for flexibility. Equipment repositioning remains challenging in China.

Possible Risks to Rates

High uncertainty persists into May and beyond:

Operational: Port congestion, equipment shortages, and potential rollovers from reroutes.

Geopolitical: Prolonged Hormuz closure or escalation (e.g., Red Sea spillover) could add 20-30%+ via fuel/insurance; de-escalation/mine clearance might ease rates toward $2,800-$3,500/FEU.

Fuel & Costs: Elevated oil prices and surcharges ($100-$600/FEU possible); IMO/EU ETS adds further layers.

Overcapacity & Demand: Fleet growth outpacing demand keeps long-term pressure downward; weak EU/UK growth could soften rates further if conflict eases.

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