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China and SE Asia Shipping News – October 2026

Price Trends

Asia–Europe rates have continued their post-peak softening through September into early October, driven by weaker European demand, the impact of China’s Golden Week (1–7 October), and rising effective capacity from progressive Suez returns. Levels remain well above early-2026 and year-ago benchmarks but are substantially lower than the July peaks.

Latest Drewry World Container Index (WCI) readings (around 1 October): Composite index fell 1% to ~$4,434 per 40ft container. Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rates declined to approximately $3,399/FEU (down ~2% week-on-week and after 12 consecutive weeks of falls). Shanghai–Genoa was around $3,702/FEU (down ~3%).

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX11 – China/East Asia to Northern Europe) was reported in the ~$3,260–$3,400/FEU range in late September/early October readings (e.g., ~$3,260–$3,376), down sharply from mid-summer highs near $6,000 but still elevated versus pre-peak season. Asia–Mediterranean (FBX13) similarly eased to the mid-$3,500s.

A realistic working range for China–UK/Northern Europe in October is roughly $3,200–$4,000 per FEU, with potential for further modest downward pressure in the first half of the month before any carrier FAK attempts in the second half. UK-specific rates to Felixstowe/Southampton continue to track the Northern Europe average, sometimes with modest premiums for local handling and reliability.

Carriers are using blank sailings and have flagged higher FAK rates for mid-to-late October in an effort to stabilise levels after Golden Week, though success is uncertain given soft demand and added Suez capacity.

Route Changes

Two key factors continue to shape Asia–Europe routing:

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic remains heavily constrained and far below pre-crisis norms (often only a handful to low double-digit commercial vessels per day versus ~70–100 previously; recent averages ~3–8/day or ~3–9% of normal). The disruption is now into its ~220th day. Risk, insurance costs (still multiples of peacetime levels), and operational uncertainty persist, with limited commercial throughput.

Red Sea / Suez Canal: Progressive returns continue and are the more constructive development. Major carriers (MSC, Maersk/Gemini with Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and others) have restored selected Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean services. Additional alliance services (including some from ONE/HMM/Yang Ming) are scheduled to trial or shift to Suez in October. Containership transits through Suez have risen notably (e.g., monthly increases and estimates that ~35% of Asia–Europe sailings are now using the Red Sea in some analyses). Broader normalisation by end-2026 remains plausible, though a meaningful share of capacity is still expected to use the Cape of Good Hope for operational or contingency reasons.

Transit times for China–UK cargo are therefore improving selectively for Suez-restored services (shorter voyages), while Cape routing remains common for many others (typically still 40–50+ days).

Shipping Carrier Activities

Blank sailings remain in use on Asia–Europe (typically a modest number per week, e.g., around 5 announced in early October assessments, with additional Golden Week-related cancellations by MSC, Maersk and others). These help manage capacity amid post-peak and holiday softness, though overall blanking rates have been lower than in some prior years on these trades.

Progressive Suez returns by MSC, Maersk/Gemini, CMA CGM and others remain the dominant operational theme, implemented service-by-service with contingency options retained. Equipment and space availability are generally more manageable than at the peak, supported by residual blanks and the capacity release from shorter Suez voyages, though residual congestion effects (Shanghai and some Northern Europe hubs) and schedule reliability issues can still appear.

Possible Risks to Rates

Geopolitical: Any deterioration around Hormuz or a fresh Red Sea incident could reverse Suez progress and reinstate higher risk premiums/insurance costs.

Demand: Further post-Golden Week softening in European import volumes would add downward pressure. Stronger-than-expected autumn restocking could help stabilise levels.

Capacity release: Continued Suez returns increase effective capacity on Asia–Europe, which tends to weigh on rates unless carriers respond with more aggressive blank sailings.

Operational: Residual port congestion (Shanghai waiting times have fluctuated; Northern Europe hubs have seen issues including potential labour actions and low Rhine water levels at times), fuel costs linked to Middle East disruption, and schedule reliability remain factors.

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