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China and SE Asia Shipping News – June 2026

Price Trends

In June 2026, rates from China to the UK/Northern Europe are rising modestly due to early peak season demand, despite lingering geopolitical pressures. Expect a range of $3,800-$5,800 per FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), with spot rates showing weekly gains.

Latest Indices: Drewry’s WCI rose 3% to $2,800/FEU as of May 28 (latest detailed reading), with Asia-Europe strength: Shanghai-Rotterdam at $2,861 (+3%) and Shanghai-Genoa at $4,253 (+4%). CMA CGM announced FAK rates effective June 1 around $4,700/FEU for Asia-Europe. The broader Containerised Freight Index traded flat near 2,572 points in early June but is up significantly year-on-year.

Drivers: Early peak season (pre-summer/holiday stocking) and tighter capacity from rerouting support increases. However, massive fleet overcapacity (from 2025-2026 deliveries) prevents sharper spikes. War-risk and bunker surcharges (tied to oil volatility from Hormuz) add $200-$700/FEU.

UK Nuance: Rates to Felixstowe/Southampton align closely with Northern Europe but may carry slight premiums for local handling amid potential congestion from Cape-routed vessels.

Overall, the market shows resilience with upward bias into peak season, though overcapacity caps extreme volatility.

Route Changes

Cape of Good Hope remains dominant (70-80% of Asia-Europe services), with limited Suez progress and ongoing Hormuz caution. Transit times for China-UK stay extended at 40-50 days (vs. 30-35 via Suez).

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic is a fraction of pre-war levels (down ~95% at worst, with erratic partial recovery in May). Some U.S.-protected lanes see limited transits, but risks (mines, attacks) persist; full normalization could take months. This indirectly raises fuel/insurance costs for broader reroutes.

Red Sea/Suez: Partial/test returns by some carriers (e.g., Maersk’s earlier ME11/MECL attempts) have been cautious or paused due to spillover risks. Most services stick to Cape routing.

UK Ports: Felixstowe and Southampton manage volumes with moderate congestion risks from vessel bunching; tech investments help mitigate delays.

Shipping Carrier Activities

Carriers balance peak season demand with geopolitical risks through disciplined capacity management:

Capacity & Blank Sailings: Only a few blank sailings announced for Asia-Europe in early June, signaling tighter supply amid demand pickup. Blank sailings overall remain 15-25% to counter overcapacity.

Alliances & Rerouting: Gemini (Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd) and Ocean Alliance optimise Cape-focused schedules with high reliability targets. MSC and Premier Alliance use slot exchanges. Surcharges (war-risk, bunker, peak season) are active.

Other: Focus on equipment repositioning and green initiatives (LNG fleets), though higher bunker costs from oil volatility add pressure. Some multimodal options for time-sensitive cargo.

Possible Risks to Rates

June remains dynamic with several upside/downside factors:

Geopolitical: Hormuz/Red Sea escalation could add 15-30% via surcharges and longer routes; de-escalation or partial reopenings might ease rates toward $3,000-$4,000/FEU.

Peak Season & Demand: Stronger-than-expected Q2/Q3 volumes could sustain or lift rates; weaker EU/UK import demand might cap them.

Overcapacity: Fleet growth continues to exert long-term downward pressure if demand softens post-peak.

Operational/Regulatory: Fuel volatility, port congestion, equipment shortages, and IMO/EU ETS costs ($100-$300/FEU) add uncertainty.

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